Monday (25 Mar) - The Reality and Promise Leagues

Monday (25 Mar) - The Reality and Promise Leagues

I have devised my own kind of fantasy league for the baseball season this year using a baseball simulation program/game called Strat-O-Matic (SOM). This is the same game that the Sporting News used when it established it's online baseball simulation game, which SOM later took over when the Sporting News dropped it.

The computer based game takes the actual statistics of every major league baseball player for each season and builds game cards representing the players. Unlike most computer baseball games, which are more like pinball where the person playing actually swings a bat and throws pitches, in SOM the person playing is more like an owner and manager. Team rosters are identified, lineups and pitching rotations are assigned, bullpens set, etc. Teams play out the games batter by batter, with the ability to make in game decisions at every step of the way. The only thing that isn't controlled by the person playing the game is the actual outcome. That is handled by the simulation. When it comes time to throw a pitch and swing a bat, the computer determines (based on the actual statistics) what the outcome is - a home run, strike out, fly ball out, steal a base, etc. Every decision on a real baseball diamond can be played out in the game.

Here's what I want to do. Every day, once the baseball season starts, I will check the newspaper for the results of the games played the previous day. Using SOM, I will schedule games that match those played on that day. I'll then play those games and record the results. Over the course of the season I'll be able to compare how the actual 2013 team (and each player) is doing versus what the simulation is coming up with. And I'll be doing it twice. More on that in a minute.

There are some inescapable checks on reality. First, the simulation is based on the actual statistics from the 2012 season. I already know that the wonderful season Chase Headley had in 2012 won't be duplicated in 2013 - Headley is hurt and won't be playing for several weeks. That's reality.

Second, it is possible but incredibly time consuming for one person to manage  the day to day games of all thirty teams. SOM has an answer for that, too. It's called the computer manager: A simulated manager to manage simulated games. I still have to set the lineups and the pitching rotations, but the computer manager makes the in game decisions.

Now, back to doing the simulation twice. Three versions of the 2013 season will be played out.

#1: The actual results of the actual play of the 2013 season. This is the "control" team, if you will. This is what really happens this season.

#2: The Reality League. I'll be using the statistics from the 2012 season. The San Diego Padres roster will be based on the actual 2013 team composition. For each game I will use the lineup and starting pitcher that for the actual game played that day. I will also use the actual lineup and starting pitcher of the opponent on that day.

#3: The Promise League. The Padres roster remains the same. However, I call this the "promise" league because I base it on the rosy outlook of spring training that promises everyone is healthy and at their peak. As an example, let's talk about catcher Nick Hundley.In the Reality League Hundley hit an abysmal .157 in 2012. In the Promise league, however, I'm hoping he'll return to being the solid catcher and hitter he used to be. Therefore, I'm using his 2011 statistics, when he hit .288. In this league I don't have to use the actual lineup and starting pitcher, either. And Chase Headley is not hurt.

The overall idea is to compare what really happens this season with what the 2012 teams, using the 2013 rosters, might have done over a full season, and what the team would have done if every player performed at their best.

The most significant caveat to all this is that it is too hard to build current 2013 opening day rosters for all of the other 29 teams. I've done that in the past, and it's grueling. What I will do, though, is adjust rosters and lineups for the team that the Padres are playing that day, and keep the changed rosters in tact for future games. In that way the other fourteen National League teams will, over the course of the season, look more like the 2013 rosters. I'll even make adjustments for the American League teams that play the Padres.

Other issues - One thing I don't have a lot of control over in the simulation is injuries. I can't simply assign a player as injured. I also can't make a player "uninjured" once he's been injured, which is a more serious issue. Things that I can do: I can remove the player from the roster, or assign him to the minor leagues. Neither are perfect solutions. My other option is to turn off the injury feature, and all injuries will be ignored. I intend to turn off injuries and use the minor leagues to attempt to control players who should not be playing. I'll see how that goes. More important is to make sure that players who should be playing get to play.

It won't be a perfect simulation, but I'm really looking forward to seeing how things turn out.