Tuesday (11 Jun) - The Enchanter's War

Tuesday (11 Jun) - The Enchanter's War

In Happy's long years as a purveyor of fine enchanting materials, pretenders to his throne have tried and failed to unseat him time and time again. There has been new blood stalking the Auction House for a few weeks now, and the battle for prominence (and it's reward in gold) has become pretty intense. Most, if not all, of Happy's opponents have the advantage of doing their own farming of materials. These false market prophets/farmers rarely consider the value of the time it takes to collect materials for sale, and so they under price their goods.

In a thriving market, Happy encourages low pricing and buys up those goods for sale at higher prices later, after the farmer wearies of the chore of collecting all that material himself and the cheap source of goods dries up. Some farmers go after a wide range of goods, while others specialize in certain markets. Happy's forte is enchanting materials, of course, but he also does some limited secondary business in cloth, gems, herbs, and bags.

The market has not been thriving. It is in a boom and bust phase, where prices can fluctuate wildly, nervous buyers and sellers tend to drive down the prices, but where temporary shortages can yield great profit if tapped at the right moment. Happy reluctantly gives ground on pricing, using a number of tricks to prop up the market. However, there comes a time when the price of an item reaches a point so low it can't be maintained, and that means the price will tank completely. Happy then mercilessly enters the bidding war and sells what he can. When the item tanks, he then buys up the dregs at desperately low prices. Eventually the item will return at a more reasonable price, Happy's sales will resume, and the process starts anew.

Happy's primary competitor in the enchanting mat market is Griffpriest. He has a wide range of goods in significant quantities. He and Happy are in the bidding war phase on several items that Happy has been propping up for some time. Happy is maxed out on storing a lot of this stuff, so he is getting what he can get now. Ryujin is another heavy seller in the war who is even more aggressive in undercutting the competition. Mats such as large brilliant shards, arcane dust, and large prismatic shards are close to becoming un-sellable at any price.

A more dangerous prospect is that the demand for what has held up Happy's profits lately has appeared to evaporate. Heavenly shards and Greater Celestial Essences sold endlessly at 10g apiece. Now, the the price is down to under 6g each, but still few are buying. What is also ominous is that the mat that makes heavenly shards, Maelstrom Crystals, has dropped under 3g each. An enchanter can make two heavenly shards from one maelstrom crystal. Do the math. Heavenly shard prices are going to tank.

To make Happy's day completely bleak, even the newest materials, those mats needed for current gear, has suffered severely. There just do not seem to be enough buyers. Over the last weekend, for example, the price of the hard to get but essential Sha Crystals saw a price drop that began at over 400g each, and ended down to under 200g each. Some of that was panic underbidding by amateur sellers, although Griffpriest had a hand in that. Happy wisely sucked up many of those cheap sha crystals, knowing that the market had to come back up at least enough for Happy to make some profit. They are selling at around 250g now. Happy is betting they'll reach 275g, which is where Happy will start selling them. PS - a day after I wrote this, sha crystal prices fell to 175g. I'm beginning to wonder if Mists of Pandaria is an already dead expansion.

The gem market is still pretty new to Happy. He doesn't know the competitors, yet (although Jetstream seems to be a heavy player), and he's still working on the fringes. He still managed to sell almost a 1,000g in gems over the weekend, though. He's learning. Even in his short time in the gem market, Happy already sees prices sliding. Gems solidly selling in the 100g range dipped to as low as 70-80g. Happy can still make the gems (or, well, JB can) at a lower price, but it's an indicator of where the market might go.

Oddly enough, the one market that has done the most to sustain Happy is the volatiles market. Blizz did away with elemental materials in Panda land, known as volatiles, eternals, and primals in earlier expansions. So, the Wrath version, volatiles, still have quite a bit if value. Happy bought a ton of those when Pandaria grew close, and he is still making a profit on the sales. Happy's efforts have worked almost too well, though. Prices are high but Happy's stock is now dwindling. Happy is in a dangerous spiral, buying up ever higher priced volatiles and then raising his selling price again and again to compensate. There will come a time when the buyers will say, no more.

Fist actually did some questing for a few hours, a rarity for the Wild family these days. JB was acting as the central distribution point for all of the materials required to make things that Happy sold, and she was getting tired of clogged bags and an overloaded mailbox. Happy, not wanting JB to show up on his doorstep with wheelbarrows full stuff she no longer wanted to hold, Happy promised to fix things. EZ, Jocey, Shevils, and Mew were pressed into service handling the mess. Fist was asked to make the Trapper's bag, a 28 slot leatherworking bag. She had the mats, but needed to gain Revered status with the Kalu'ak faction in Northrend in order to buy the recipe. Off and on through the course of a day, Fist worked on the quests, and got her recipe. JB was happy, Fist was Happy, and Happy was Happy. EZ, Jocey, Shevils, and Mew weren't exactly thrilled at having to go to work, though.