Baseball Again?

Baseball Again?

Every now and then my passion for baseball gets in the way of World of Warcraft. You have been warned. The below is the letter I sent to the sports desk of the Union-Tribune newspaper here is San Diego. (Sigh, the results tables didn't turn out very well here, but at least they are still readable)

To: Letters Editor (Sports):
HEADLINE: The San Diego Padres will have a winning season in 2015, but won’t make the post season. That’s my prediction, and I can back it up with the numbers.

The Assumption: The pitching will match their 2014 production in 2015, although a diminished defense will cost the team in unearned runs.

The Question: Given the above assumption, how good does our revamped offense need to be for the Padres to field a winning team?

I know the answer to that question. Getting to that answer required a couple of steps. Step  (1) Using a statistical modeling program, I ran a series of simulations based on the 2014 season statistics and the projected roster for 2015. Step (2) I ran a second series of simulations based on predicting improvements by key players. I call it The “Will” Factor. In a moment it will be obvious why.
Simulation One used only the 2014 statistics. The results show what impact the changes to the roster have on the offense.

Simulation Two goes a step further. The “Will” Factor - Wil Myers (2013), Will Middlebrooks (2012), and Will Venable (2012) - were selected for upgrades, using the statistics from the selected years. A fourth player, Jedd Gyorko (2013), is widely expected to make a comeback, so he also received an upgrade.

Would either simulation be enough to lift the Padres to a winning season? Here are the results.

San Diego Padres RESULTS
Part 1 - Based on 2015 roster and 2014 statistics.
Record    Standings    BA    Runs/HR    SB    ERA    Errors   
70-92    4th        .224    521        54    3.55    x
83-79    2nd-tie/SF*    .239    605/129    48    3.23    x
75-87    4th        .235    595/119    77    3.19    116
81-81    2nd        .245    634/124    63    3.35    116
79-83    3rd        .220    516/117    68    3.15    137
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
78-84            .233    574/122    62    3.30    123 <-- br="" final="">* Possible post season chance
Answer - If the new roster plays at the 2014 level, the Padres will not have a winning season.

Part 2 - Based on improvement by four key players.
Record    Standings    BA    Runs/HR    SB    ERA    Errors   
86-76    2nd*        .249    592/145    67    3.36    131
78-84    3rd        .240    612/155    50    3.59    124
81-81    2nd*        .251    652/149    62    3.40    99
74-88    4th        .257    635/140    64    3.56    124
90-72    2nd*        .243    638/152    65    3.27    123
------------------------------------------------------------------------
82-80            .248    625/148    61    3.44    120 <-- br="" final="">* Possible post season chance

Answer - SUCCESS! It is a marginal victory, but the Padres go over .500 in 2015. For the most optimistic, there is also a 3 in 5 chance that the Padres could win their way into the post season.
Note: The program I use for the simulations is from the Strat-O-Matic game company. I played five seasons for the two simulations and then averaged the results.
A baseball fanatic since 1968, and a Padres season ticket holder since 2013, I hope you found the above interesting.